By: Mohammad Abbas (Editor-in-Chief, TWU) Date: March 15, 2026 | Source: Reuters / Al Jazeera / VOA News / TWU Analysis
ASUNCIÓN / BEIJING — Jahan ek taraf duniya ka dhyan Iran war par hai, wahin China ne South America mein ek bada diplomatic morcha khol diya hai. Reuters ki taaza report ke mutabik, China poori koshish kar raha hai ki Paraguay—jo South America mein Taiwan ka ekmatra aur aakhri dost hai—Taiwan se apne 69 saal purane rishte tod le.
Kyun Zaroori Hai Paraguay? (Mercosur Angle):
Trade Block ka Jackpot: Paraguay sirf ek chhota desh nahi hai, balki woh ‘Mercosur’ (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay) ka founding member hai.
Veto Power: Mercosur mein ‘consensus’ ka rule hai, yaani har member ke paas veto power hai.
China ka Asli Nishana: Agar Paraguay Taiwan ko chhodkar China ko manyata de deta hai, toh China ke liye $500 billion ke is poore trade bloc ka darwaza khul
December 2024 Ka Woh Bada Incident:
December 2024 mein ek sansani khez waqya hua jab China ke doot Xu Wei ne Paraguay ke sansadon (lawmakers) ko seedhe chetawani di ki Taiwan ko chhodna hi unke liye sahi faisla hoga. Iske jawab mein Paraguay sarkar ne sakht kadam uthate huye chini doot ko 24 ghante ke bhitar desh chhodne (Expel) ka aadesh de diya tha.
Paraguay Ka Stand — “Principles Over Money”:
President ka Bayan: Rashtrapati Santiago Peña ne saaf kiya hai ki halanki woh China ke saath vyapar (trade) chahte hain, lekin Taiwan ka saath chhodna unke usoolon ke khilaf hai.
Diplomacy vs Dollars: Videsh Mantri Lezcano ke mutabik, unke liye aadarsh aur mulya (principles and values), vyapar aur paise se upar hain.
Economic Pressure — Soy aur Beef ka Nuksan:
GDP par Asar: China ke saath seedhe vyapar na hone ki wajah se Paraguay ko apni soybeans aur beef bichaoliyan (intermediaries) ke zariye bechni padti hai, jisse uski saalana GDP ko kareeb 1% ka nuksan hota hai.
Taiwan ki Madad: Iske badle mein Taiwan Paraguay ko development aid aur technical madad muhaiya karata hai
Iran War Connection: China ne yeh samay isliye chuna hai kyunki America is waqt Iran war mein poori tarah uljha hua hai. Jab Washington ka dhyan Middle East par hai, Beijing South America mein Taiwan ke bache-kuche doston ko todne ki firaq mein hai.
TWU Assessment: Filhal Paraguay ka Taiwan ko chhodna mushkil lag raha hai, lekin China ka aarthik (economic) dabav badhta ja raha hai. Yeh war sirf missilon se nahi, balki kootniti (diplomacy) aur trade se bhi ladi ja rahi hai.
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